Vietnam Advances Population Law to Address Demographic Shift

Vietnam prepares its first Population Law and ends the two-child policy to tackle declining fertility, ageing demographics, and regional imbalances. The move signals a policy transformation aligned with socio-economic development priorities.

On June 3, 2025, the National Assembly’s Standing Committee of Vietnam approved a major amendment to the Population Ordinance No. 06/2003/PL-UBTVQH11, signaling a transition in how the country manages its population policy. The amendment formally removes the restriction limiting each couple to a maximum of two children. Individual couples are now free to decide on the number of children they want.

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The Ministry of Health is concurrently finalizing the draft of Vietnam’s first-ever Population Law, slated for submission to the National Assembly later this year. This law represents a departure from rigid family planning measures and signals the country’s readiness to confront multiple, interconnected demographic challenges through a modern legislative framework.

Declining fertility and emerging demographic pressures

According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), as of April 1, 2024, Vietnam’s total population stood at 101.1 million. While the country remains the third most populous in Southeast Asia, behind Indonesia and the Philippines, and 16th globally, recent data reveals a tapering growth trend. From 2019 to 2024, the population grew by 4.9 million, averaging 0.99 percent per year, down from 1.22 percent during the previous five-year period.

Vietnam’s fertility rate has fallen steadily in recent years, from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.96 in 2023, the lowest in the country’s recorded history. While this aligns Vietnam with other rapidly developing economies, it raises alarms about the sustainability of its population structure.

According to demographic projections, Vietnam’s golden population window, a phase marked by a high working-age population, may close by 2040. The working-age population is expected to peak in 2042, followed by a period of negative population growth from 2054 onward. In 2024, 67.4 percent of the population fell in the 15–64 age bracket (down from 68 percent in 2019), while the share of children under 15 fell to 23.3 percent, and the elderly population (65 and above) rose to 9.3 percent, up by 1.6 percentage points over five years. This would have critical consequences, including labor shortages, pension pressures, and accelerated ageing.

Legislative evolution: From ordinance to law

The current population governance structure is built around the Population Ordinance No. 06/2003/PL-UBTVQH11, revised in 2008 under Ordinance No. 08/2008/PL-UBTVQH12. The newly passed amendment replaces restrictive clauses with provisions that empower individuals and couples to decide the timing, number, and spacing of children, based on health, education, income, and capacity to raise children.

The revised Article 10 now states that these decisions shall be made on the basis of equality, marking a significant ideological shift. Clause 2, which previously allowed only one or two children, except in special cases, has also been removed.

This change not only aligns with Party guidelines that eliminated disciplinary measures for families exceeding two children but also sets the groundwork for the upcoming Population Law. While the 2003 Ordinance on Population was primarily administrative and focused on family planning enforcement, the new draft law is positioned as an important development instrument.

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It will also harmonize with other existing laws, including:

• Law on Medical Examination and Treatment (2023 amendment);
• Social Insurance Law (revised 2024), Gender Equality Law (2006); and
• Law on the Elderly (2009).

Three pillars of the draft Population Law

The draft Population Law focuses on three central policy areas, as outlined by General Office for Population and Family Planning (GOPFP).

Maintaining replacement-level fertility

Policies will be customized for different regions and population groups to address imbalances. Fertility in some economically vital regions, such as the southeast and Mekong Delta, has dropped to 1.48–1.62 children per woman, while other areas like the northern midlands maintain higher-than-replacement rates of 2.34.

Improving population quality from birth

Measures include universal access to pre-marital counselling, prenatal and newborn screening, nutrition support, and early childhood development. These aim to reduce birth defects and genetic disorders, while enhancing mental health and overall resilience.

Adapting to population ageing

The law proposes extending health insurance to uninsured elderly citizens and emphasizes strengthening social protection systems. As of 2024, 9.3 percent of Vietnam’s population was aged 65 or above. The country is projected to become an aged society by 2034, and a super-aged society by 2049, with over 20 percent of the population crossing the 65-year threshold.

Incentives and social support mechanisms

To address the declining fertility trend, the draft Population Law proposes an integrated system of economic and social incentives. These measures are especially aimed at regions where fertility rates have fallen below replacement levels. Provinces and municipalities would be authorized to design local policies to encourage childbearing without mandating uniform solutions nationwide.

Proposed incentives include housing support, childcare subsidies, extended maternity and paternity leave, tax reductions, and preferential access to public services for families with two or more children. Importantly, the policy framework encourages a multi-sectoral coordination mechanism involving health, labor, finance, and education ministries. This comprehensive approach aims to remove barriers to parenting and restore confidence in family life among urban residents.

The law also places emphasis on gender equality in caregiving responsibilities and offers flexible work arrangements to better support working parents, particularly women, whose professional advancement is often hindered by child-rearing duties.

Economic implications and investor perspectives

The demographic trends addressed by Vietnam’s draft population law hold major implications for investors, particularly in sectors such as healthcare, education, insurance, housing, and consumer goods. As Vietnam transitions to an aged society, demand will increase for geriatric healthcare services, retirement housing, and elderly insurance products. The law’s focus on universal prenatal and neonatal care could also attract private players in diagnostics, biotech, and nutritional services.

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Furthermore, the law’s encouragement of population redistribution and regional incentives could reshape labor availability, urban development, and public service planning. Businesses operating in Vietnam may need to reassess their human capital strategies and adapt to a changing consumer demographic, characterized by a shrinking youth cohort and a rising elderly population.

A particularly relevant consideration for foreign investors is the government’s continued emphasis on data-driven population governance. The new law would likely enhance the role of the General Statistics Office (GSO) in publishing more frequent and granular demographic data,  a move that supports market research, demand forecasting, and social impact investment strategies.

In short

Moving away from restrictive family planning rules, the draft legislation embraces a holistic model of population as a development resource. It responds to urgent challenges: declining fertility, rapid population aging, persistent gender imbalances, and unequal regional demographic patterns.

By codifying citizens’ reproductive rights, expanding social incentives, and introducing proactive elderly care measures, the draft law aims to secure a sustainable population structure for long-term socio-economic development

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