Typhoon Koto Update: Current Status, Forecasts, and Preparedness Measures

Typhoon Koto (Storm No. 15) has intensified over the central South China Sea, bringing dangerous winds and rough seas. Businesses and residents are advised to remain alert and take precautionary measures as the situation develops.

Typhoon Koto, known as Storm No. 15 in Vietnam, continued to intensify on November 27, 2025, reaching sustained winds of Level 12 (118–133 kmh) with gusts up to Level 15 as it moved across the central South China Sea.

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Forecast models indicate that by early November 28, Typhoon Koto is expected to remain at Level 12, gusting to Level 15, but to slow and turn west-southwestward at 5–10 kmh.

On November 29, the typhoon may weaken slightly to Level 11 with gusts up to Level 14 while shifting west-northwest and later northwest at approximately 5 km/h. Hazard zones remain largely unchanged, and sea conditions are expected to stay severe, with waves ranging from four to nine meters in areas near the storm center.

Despite weakening, officials remain concerned that the storm could land in the south-central region, an area already affected by deadly floods and landslides that have resulted in 98 deaths and 10 people missing as of November 26.

Marine conditions across the central South China Sea will remain dangerous, with sustained winds of Level 7–9, and areas near the storm center will experience Level 10–12 winds and extreme sea states. All vessels operating in these zones face high risks from strong winds, rough seas, thunderstorms, and tornado-like gusts.

Two potential scenarios for Vietnam

Hoang Phuc Lam, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), has noted that the storm is positioned approximately in line with the former Phu Yen province. The likelihood of the system descending and entering southern localities remains low.

Scenario 1 – 80 percent probability

The typhoon curves north upon reaching the waters northwest of the Spratly Islands and weakens into a low-pressure system before drifting toward the central provinces. In this scenario, strong onshore winds are unlikely. However, widespread rainfall is expected from Da Nang to Lam Dong in early December, particularly in coastal areas.

Current analyses indicate that rainfall will be significant but not as extreme as the November 16–21 event.

Scenario 2 – 20 percent probability

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The typhoon maintains its westward track toward the Gia Lai–Khanh Hoa region before weakening to Level 8 or a tropical depression.

In this scenario, coastal areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong may experience Level 8 winds with gusts up to Level 10 beginning November 29, alongside wave heights of 3–5 meters. Rainfall of 150–250 mm is possible between November 29 and December 1, although extreme flooding levels remain unlikely based on current data.

Drivers behind Typhoon Koto’s unusual track

The NCHMF Deputy Director has explained that the storm’s deceleration is linked to the weakening subtropical high. As the system approaches 112–113°E longitude, it is expected to turn north. Seasonal conditions are also shaping the forecast, including:

• Cooler sea-surface temperatures near the coast;
• Strengthening northeast monsoon pushing southward; and
• Potential weakening of the storm as cold air penetrates its circulation.

Potential impacts

Marine impacts

From today, strong winds and rough seas are expected across the central East Sea, including the northern waters of the Spratly Islands, as follows:

• Wind intensity: Level 7–9; near the center, Level 10–12, gusting to Level 15.
• Wave height: 4–6 meters; near the center, 7–9 meters.
• High risk of thunderstorms, squalls, and dangerous sea conditions.

All vessels operating in affected zones are advised to take precautions or adjust their planned routes accordingly.

Domestic impacts

The storm may bring moderate to heavy rainfall across Da Nang to Lam Dong, increasing risks of:

• Localized flooding;
• Landslides in mountainous areas; and
• Disruptions to transport and logistics operations.

What businesses should do?

Businesses are advised to actively monitor real-time weather updates and local government advisories to stay informed of changing conditions. It is essential to secure warehouses, stock, and infrastructure against potential flood and wind damage.

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Companies should also plan for alternative transportation routes to minimize operational disruptions. Preparing staff for remote work, where feasible, and ensuring that safety protocols are in place for essential personnel are equally important.

In addition, businesses should review emergency communication plans with employees, suppliers, and partners to maintain precise coordination during the storm. Evaluating insurance coverage for storm-related damages can help mitigate financial risks, while coordination with local authorities may be necessary for evacuation or relief measures in affected areas.

Overall, businesses in central Vietnam, especially in coastal regions, should anticipate possible operational disruptions and prioritize the safety of personnel, assets, and logistics. Proactive planning and preparedness are critical to minimizing both economic and operational impacts.

See also: Typhoon Season in Vietnam: How to Prepare Your Business

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