Vietnam Manufacturing Tracker: September 2026 Update

Vietnam GDP and the value added by the manufacturing sector

Vietnam’s GDP grew 9.01 percent year-on-year in January–September 2026, per data released by the National Statistics Office of Vietnam (NSO). Q3 growth reached 9.95 percent, compared with 8.15 percent in Q1 and 8.81 percent in Q2.

Industry and construction expanded 11.21 percent over the nine-month period. Manufacturing and processing value added increased 11.36 percent, contributing 33.85 percent of economy-wide value-added growth.

Vietnam’s government has set an ambitious target of a 10 percent increase in 2026.

For further information, see: Vietnam Economic Performance in 2025: GDP, FDI, and Trade

Vietnam Manufacturing PMI: September 2026

Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI eased to 51.9 in September, from 53.3 in August, signalling a slower improvement in operating conditions. Business conditions nevertheless strengthened for the fifteenth consecutive month.

Production continued to rise markedly, although growth slowed from August. New orders also increased, supported by improving market conditions and larger customer orders, but recorded their weakest growth in five months. New export orders declined for a second consecutive month, with the sharpest fall since April.

Employment fell slightly as manufacturers reported resignations and restructuring. Backlogs remained broadly unchanged: some firms faced capacity pressures, while others managed workloads more comfortably as order growth moderated.

Purchasing activity increased, but input stocks continued to decline as materials were used in production. Prompt shipments helped manufacturers reduce finished-goods inventories at the fastest pace since the survey began in March 2011. Supplier delivery times lengthened modestly amid international shipping disruption and poor weather.

Input-cost inflation accelerated slightly from August, driven by higher oil, fuel and transport costs, although it remained among the lowest rates recorded over the past year. Selling-price inflation slowed for a fifth consecutive month, reaching its weakest level since June 2025 as competition limited cost pass-through.

Business confidence strengthened to its highest level since February, supported by expectations of improving market conditions and planned product launches.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reflects the manufacturing sector’s performance by surveying 400 firms in the industry. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month, below 50 represents a contraction, while 50 indicates no change.

For production planning, businesses should test capacity assumptions against customer-level demand. Export manufacturers should review confirmed orders and shipment schedules before extending procurement commitments or adding permanent capacity.

Vietnam Index of Industrial Production: September and January–September 2026

Vietnam’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) increased 12.3 percent year-on-year in January–September 2026. Industrial production expanded 14.8 percent in Q3, with manufacturing and processing remaining the principal growth driver.

Industrial activity	January–September growth, YoY
Overall IIP	12.3%
Manufacturing and processing	12.9%
Electricity production and distribution	10.6%
Water supply and waste treatment	9.3%
Mining	8.0%

Growth varied across manufacturing industries. Basic metal production increased 25.5 percent, followed by beverages at 17.4 percent, motor vehicles at 15.3 percent, and electronics and computers at 15.2 percent. Food processing expanded 12.5 percent, while non-metallic mineral products rose 12.2 percent.

Labour-intensive industries recorded more moderate gains. Textile production increased 7.8 percent, while footwear rose 3.4 percent, likely due to high sea freight costs and new trade barriers.

Capital-goods production grew 15.4 percent, compared with 11.5 percent for consumer goods, suggesting that foreign and domestic investments are increasingly supporting capacity expansion rather than short-term consumption. Among individual products, output increased strongly for tablets (36.5 percent), motorcycles (28.1 percent), laptops (26.2 percent), automobiles (24.8 percent) and rolled steel (22.4 percent).

Industrial production increased across all 34 provinces and centrally governed cities. Ha Tinh recorded the fastest growth at 40.2 percent, followed by Ninh Binh (25 percent), Thai Nguyen (23.2 percent), and Phu Tho and Nghe An (21.5 percent each). Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi posted more moderate increases of 10.9 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

For investors, the differences across industries and locations reinforce the importance of assessing sector-specific demand, supplier capacity and infrastructure alongside national production trends. Provincial growth rates should inform location screening, with further assessment of the projects and industries driving each locality’s expansion.

Employment in industrial enterprises

As of 1 September 2026, industrial employment increased 1.0 percent month-on-month and 3.4 percent year-on-year.

Investors should assess labour availability at the proposed site, including technical skills, recruitment lead times, employee transport and retention. National employment growth alone cannot establish whether a particular facility can recruit the workforce it needs.

Investment highlights: January–September 2026

Indicator	Value	YoY growth
Registered inward FDI	US$50.36 billion	76.4%
Disbursed FDI	US$21.07 billion	12.1%
Total realised investment	VND 3,109.6 trillion	15.1%

Total realised investment across Vietnam’s economy, measured at current prices, reached an estimated VND 1,291.2 trillion in Q3 2026, increasing 16.7 percent year-on-year. Over January–September, investment totalled VND 3,109.6 trillion, up 15.1 percent.

Foreign investment commitments also increased substantially. As of 30 September 2026, total registered foreign investment reached US$50.36 billion, rising 76.4 percent year-on-year. This figure includes newly registered capital, adjustments to existing projects, and foreign investors’ capital contributions and share purchases.

Estimated disbursed FDI reached US$21.07 billion during the first nine months, increasing 12.1 percent year-on-year. This was the highest January–September disbursement recorded in the past five years. Registered capital reflects investment commitments, while disbursement provides a measure of their implementation.

Vietnamese investment overseas also expanded. During January–September, 121 projects received new investment certificates, with Vietnamese investors’ registered capital totalling US$1.28 billion, up 80.9 percent year-on-year. A further 32 capital adjustments added US$1.49 billion, equivalent to 10.8 times the amount recorded a year earlier.

For manufacturing investors, these figures provide context for assessing investment momentum. They cover the wider economy, however, and should be considered alongside sector-specific investment data, infrastructure readiness and project implementation conditions.

Foreign direct investment in Vietnam’s processing and manufacturing industry

Vietnam’s Investment by Country/Territory, 2025
Country/Territory	Investment (US$ billion)	Share of total (%)
Singapore	4.84	27.9%
China	3.64	21.0%
Hong Kong (China)	1.73	10.0%
Japan	1.62	9.4%
Sweden	1.00	5.8%
Source: NSO

Tracking FDI into Vietnam’s Manufacturing and Processing Industry
Year	Number of new projects	Newly registered capital (US$ billion)	Adjusted project number	Adjusted capital (US$ billion)	Number of times of capital contribution to buy shares	Value of capital contribution, share purchase (US$ billion)
2016	1,020	9.81	861	5.13	290	593.51
2017	932	6.86	761	7.27	1,365	1.74
2018	1,065	9.07	743	5.09	1,528	2.43
2019	1,314	12.09	861	5.38	2,261	7.09
2020	800	7.19	680	4.59	1,268	1.82
2021	533	7.25	612	7.35	650	3.52
2022	511	7.21	644	7.98	471	1.61
2023	1,075	15.85	691	6.11	529	1.38
2024	1,169	13.44	982	11.24	555	0.9
2025	1,381	9.8	843	8.79	602	2.43
Source: MPI

Vietnam’s merchandise trade

Indicator	September 2026	January–September 2026
Total merchandise trade	US$117.69 billion	US$888.02 billion
Exports	US$59.48 billion	US$434.30 billion
Imports	US$58.21 billion	US$453.72 billion
Trade balance	US$1.27 billion surplus	US$19.42 billion deficit

September exports rose 39.1 percent year-on-year and imports 45.8 percent. Nine-month exports increased 24.5 percent, while imports rose 36.7 percent.

Processed industrial goods generated US$392.97 billion, or 90.4 percent of nine-month exports. Foreign-invested enterprises, including crude oil, accounted for 80.7 percent of total export turnover.

Production goods represented 94.1 percent of imports, covering machinery, equipment and production inputs. The United States remained the largest export market; China was the largest import source.

Companies should examine trade exposure by product and destination. Aggregate export growth cannot establish the demand outlook for an individual manufacturer, while import growth may reflect equipment purchases, production inputs or price changes.

Cost pressures and Vietnam’s Q4 outlook

September consumer prices in Vietnam increased 5.08 percent year-on-year.

Manufacturers should review whether procurement and logistics budgets still match current quotations. Where customers resist price increases, management should test the effect on margins and working capital before accepting additional orders.

Planning area	What businesses should assess
Demand and capacity	Confirmed orders, customer concentration and available production capacity
Procurement	Supplier quotations, contract terms and alternative sources
Logistics	Delivery reliability, freight costs and shipment contingencies
Workforce	Recruitment lead times, skills gaps and retention
Working capital	Inventory ageing, payment terms and cash collection
Expansion	Site services, project approvals and implementation costs

Incentives for investing in Vietnam

Vietnam’s Law on Investment specifies the three forms of incentives that are available to companies operating within the country:

• Corporate income tax (CIT) incentives, including various preferential tax rates and tax holiday rates;
• Import duty incentives; and
• Exemption or reduction of land rents and levies.

The CIT incentives can be granted to investments based on whether they belong to prioritised or government-encouraged sectors and/or are established in economic zones or disadvantaged locations, etc.

New incentives to boost private sector growth

On 15 January 2026, the Vietnamese government issued Decree 20, which provides detailed regulations and implementation guidance for several provisions of Resolution 198 on special mechanisms and policies to promote private sector development.

These provisions collectively establish a framework of targeted incentives covering tax relief, access to land and business premises, support for innovation and digital transformation, and capacity-building measures for the private sector.

For a better understanding of these appealing policies, please read:

• Vietnam Private Sector to Enjoy Special Policies: Resolutions 198 and 139
• Driving Vietnam’s Private Sector Growth: Incentives under Decree 20/2026

New tax regime with amended CIT Law

The National Assembly’s approval of Vietnam’s amended CIT Law on 14 June 2025, marks an important change in the country’s tax regime. While the headline tax rate remains unchanged, the underlying structure of how corporate incentives are granted has shifted, especially for manufacturing companies operating in industrial parks.

For further information, see: 2025 CIT Law: Implications to Manufacturing Companies in Industrial Parks

Industrial park classification in Vietnam

Industrial parks in Vietnam fall under three categories according to Decree No. 82/2018/ND-CP on the management of industrial parks and economic zones. These are as follows:

• Export processing zones: Industrial parks focused on manufacturing goods for export and providing services to support production for export. These zones must comply with the conditions, processes, and procedures outlined in the Decree.
• Auxiliary industrial areas: Industrial parks specialising in manufacturing auxiliary products and providing related services. Up to 60 percent of the rentable industrial land within these parks can be leased or re-leased for auxiliary industry projects.
• Eco-industrial parks: Industrial parks that emphasise cleaner production, efficient use of natural resources, and cooperation among enterprises to enhance economic, environmental, and social benefits through industrial symbiosis.

Vietnam’s national policy framework for manufacturing development

Recognising the importance of the manufacturing sector and industrial development to the health of the overall economy, Vietnam’s government has implemented several national schemes to further promote these areas.

Strategy on exports and imports for 2011-2020, with a Vision to 2030

Former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung approved the Strategy on Exports and Imports for 2011-2020, with a Vision to 2030 in his Decision 2471/QD-TTg.

This framework outlines specific targets and implementation strategies for the manufacturing sector:

• Export orientation: Focus on developing high-tech and advanced products in the processing and manufacturing industries.
• Production and economic restructuring: Encourage and attract investment in supporting industries to meet domestic needs and integrate into the global supply chain, particularly in manufacturing mechanics, electronics, automobile components, textiles, footwear, and high technology.

Industrial Development Strategy Through 2025, with a Vision to 2035

The Industrial Development Strategy Through 2025, with a Vision Toward 2035, was approved under Decision No. 879/QD-TTg dated 9 June 2014. This strategy set specific development priorities for the following processing and manufacturing sub-sectors:

• Mechanical engineering and metallurgy;
• Chemicals;
• Agricultural, forestry, and fishery product processing; and
• Garments, textile, leather, and footwear.

National Industrial Development Policy by 2030 with a Vision to 2045

Resolution No. 23/NQ-TW, dated 22 March 2018, outlines the National Industrial Development Policy for 2030 with a Vision to 2045. The specific targets to be achieved by 2030 include:

• Industry is expected to contribute over 40 percent of GDP, with the processing and manufacturing sector accounting for around 30 percent and manufacturing alone for over 20 percent.
• The proportion of high-tech products in the processing and manufacturing sector will reach at least 45 percent.
• The industrial added value growth rate will average over 8.5 percent, with the processing and manufacturing sector growing over 10 percent annually.
• Labor productivity in the industry will grow by 7.5 percent per year.
• The Competitive Industrial Performance (CIP) Index will rank among the top three ASEAN countries.
• The proportion of labor in the industrial and service sectors will exceed 70 percent.
• Development of large-scale, multinational, and globally competitive industrial clusters and enterprises.

Socio-Economic Development Plan for 20216-2030

The government’s action plan, designated in Resolution No. 25/2026/QH16, implements the Socio-Economic Development Plan for the five-year period from 2026 to 2026. The action plan states its specific objectives related to the manufacturing sector, which are:

• Average annual growth of the manufacturing and processing sector: 12.4 percent
• Average annual growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP): 11–12 percent
• Localization rate for key industries by 2030: 40–45 percent
• Industrial Competitiveness Index (CIP) by 2030: Ranked among the top three ASEAN countries
• Manufacturing and processing share of GDP by 2030: 28 percent
• Per capita manufacturing value added by 2030: US$2,400
• Average annual growth in merchandise exports from manufacturing and processing industries: 15–16 percent
• Average annual growth in commercial electricity: 11–12 percent
• Renewable energy share of total primary energy supply by 2030: 26.1 percent

National Green Growth Strategy for 2021-2030, Vision Towards 2050

Aiming to empower the economy through a green growth transition, Vietnam’s government issued Decision No. 1658/QD-TTg approving the National Green Growth Strategy for 2021-2030 with a Vision Towards 2050. Key goals are:

• Reducing the level of energy consumption in manufacturing, transportation, commercial, and industrial activities
• Facilitating the conditions for the development of new green manufacturing industries; and
• Encouraging the application of green technologies along with manufacturing activity management and control systems.

This article was last updated 7 October 2026.