Vietnam Economy H1 2026: GDP, FDI, Trade and Manufacturing Review

Explore Vietnam’s economic performance in H1 2026, covering GDP growth, trade, foreign investment, manufacturing output, and labour market trends shaping the country’s business outlook for foreign investors.

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Vietnam entered 2026 with strong economic momentum despite continued uncertainty in global trade and supply chains. During the first six months, growth extended across production, investment, and employment, supported by manufacturing, services, public investment, and domestic demand.

The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.18 percent year on year, while second quarter growth reached 8.39 percent, the highest second quarter rate since 2011, according to the National Statistics Office.

The half year results also present a more varied picture beneath the headline growth rate. Foreign investment increased sharply, manufacturing output and new orders strengthened, and the labour market continued to add workers. At the same time, faster import growth moved the goods balance into deficit, while higher input costs, supply disruptions, and cautious factory hiring remained areas to monitor.

GDP growth accelerates across major economic sectors

Economic growth remained broad-based in H1 2026, with all three major sectors recording positive growth. However, their contributions to overall GDP expansion varied significantly:

• Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries: Expanded 3.87 percent, contributing 5.66 percent of overall GDP growth. Agriculture grew 3.57 percent, forestry 3.98 percent, and fisheries 4.88 percent, providing a stable foundation for the economy.
• Industry and construction: Recorded the strongest sectoral growth at 9.86 percent, accounting for 40.35 percent of overall GDP growth. Manufacturing remained the primary growth driver, supported by continued public investment in infrastructure and construction.
• Services: Increased 8.09 percent and made the largest contribution to GDP growth (47.14 percent). Growth was driven by retail trade, domestic consumption, and tourism, with 12.3 million international visitor arrivals in H1, up 14.9 percent year on year.

The sector data point to broad economic expansion, with manufacturing and services providing most of the increase. Their performance will remain central to Vietnam’s full year growth objective. Stronger industrial activity also supported high trade volumes and demand for production inputs during the period.

Merchandise trade maintains strong momentum

Strong industrial activity continued to support Vietnam’s merchandise trade in H1 2026, although faster import growth shifted the country into a trade deficit.

Key trade figures (preliminary, through June):

• Total merchandise trade: US$549 billion;
• Exports: US$266 billion;
• Imports: US$283 billion;

Estimated trade deficit: US$16.65 billion, compared with a US$7.6 billion surplus in H1 2025. Final figures remain subject to reconciliation by Vietnam Customs.

Despite the shift in the trade balance, export performance remained broad-based. Five product groups each generated more than US$10 billion, together accounting for 62.6 percent of total exports:

• Computers and electronic products;
• Phones and components;
• Machinery and equipment;
• Textiles and garments; and
• Footwear.

Foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) continued to dominate exports of electronics and machinery, underscoring the close relationship between FDI, manufacturing, and export growth.

Major trading partners

• Largest export market: United States;
• Largest import source: China;
• Other key markets: EU, South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN.

Higher fuel prices and robust demand for machinery, components, and production inputs drove import growth. While the resulting deficit does not necessarily indicate weaker industrial activity, as many imports support manufacturing and future exports, it highlights the need to monitor input costs and external demand in the second half of 2026.

Foreign investment rises as manufacturing remains the main destination

Foreign direct investment (FDI) remained strong in H1 2026, with higher-value projects driving a sharp increase in registered capital.

Key FDI figures (as of end-June):

• Total registered FDI: US$34.65 billion (+61.0 percent YoY);
• Newly registered capital: US$17.39 billion across 2,013 projects (+87.2 percent YoY), while project numbers rose just 1.3 percent, indicating larger average project sizes;
• Additional capital to existing projects: US$11.04 billion (+23.5 percent YoY);
• Capital contributions and share purchases: US$6.22 billion (+89.5 percent YoY), including:
  • US$2.15 billion in charter capital increases; and
  • US$4.07 billion in share acquisitions.

Top investment destinations

• Manufacturing and processing: US$17.91 billion (63.0 percent of total registered FDI), including US$10.76 billion in newly registered capital (61.9 percent);
• Real estate: US$5.1 billion.

Leading source economies

• Singapore: US$7.31 billion;
• South Korea: US$5.45 billion;
• Japan: US$1.2 billion; and
• China: US$977 million.

Meanwhile, realized FDI reached US$13.03 billion, up 11.2 percent year on year and the highest first-half level in five years. Manufacturing and processing accounted for US$10.76 billion, or 82.6 percent, of disbursed capital.

While FDI commitments accelerated sharply, the more moderate growth in realized investment underscores the importance of monitoring project implementation alongside announced investment.

Manufacturing expansion supports industrial growth

Manufacturing remained Vietnam’s key industrial growth driver in H1 2026, supported by stronger production and continued investment.

Key manufacturing indicators:

• Industrial production index (IIP): +10.8 percent YoY, the strongest first-half growth since 2019;
• Manufacturing value added: +10.23 percent YoY;
• Contribution to GDP growth: 33.07 percent.

The figures underscore the sector’s central role in Vietnam’s economic expansion. Electronics, machinery, textiles, footwear, and other export-oriented industries continued to benefit from improving demand and sustained investment.

See also: Vietnam Manufacturing Tracker: A First-Half 2026 Review

Labor market remains stable amid gradual structural change

Vietnam’s labor market remained resilient in H1 2026, with employment and incomes rising despite cautious hiring in parts of the manufacturing sector.

Key labour market indicators:

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• Labor force (aged 15+): 53.7 million, up 690,700 YoY;
• Employment: 52.6 million, up 672,500 YoY;
• Unemployment rate: 2.22 percent:
  • Urban: 2.47 percent; and
  • Rural: 2.05 percent;
• Underemployment rate: 1.65 percent, down 0.07 percentage points.

Average monthly income increased by VND 717,000 to VND 9 million, while the share of workers with formal qualifications or certificates rose to 29.7 percent, indicating gradual improvements in workforce quality.

Employment by sector

• Services: 21.6 million workers (40.9 percent of total employment), up 400,900 YoY;
• Industry and construction: 17.7 million (33.9 percent), up 474,100;
• Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries: Employment fell by 202,600, with the sector’s share declining to 25.2 percent.

Core digital economy activities employed approximately 1.5 million people, or 3 percent of the workforce. However, informal employment still accounted for around 62 percent of total employment, while youth unemployment and skills development remained ongoing challenges.

Economic outlook for the second half of 2026

Vietnam enters the second half of 2026 from a position of strength, supported by broad-based economic growth and resilient domestic activity. Its key growth drivers for H2 2026 include:

• Continued public investment and infrastructure development;
• Stronger domestic consumption and private investment;
• Credit expansion; and
• Higher FDI disbursement.

At the same time, external risks remain. While robust import growth reflects healthy demand for production inputs, it has also widened the trade deficit.

Although Vietnam will need stronger growth in the second half to achieve its full-year target, the H1 2026 results provide a solid foundation, underpinned by robust GDP growth, rising FDI, resilient manufacturing, and continued employment gains.

Setting up a business in Vietnam requires navigating company registration, local approvals, and work permit processes. We help FDI companies by preparing and submitting documentation, coordinating with authorities, and ensuring compliance, so they can start operations smoothly and focus on growth.

Tam Nguyen

Senior Manager

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