Economic Indicators, FDI, and Trade Trends

During Q3 2025, Vietnam recorded 8.23 percent GDP growth, pushing the year-to-date expansion for the first nine months to 7.85 percent compared to the same period last year, nearly matching the government’s full-year goal of about 8 percent. This strong performance has prompted several global research organizations to upgrade their economic outlook for the country.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased its 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent, though it expects growth to ease to around 6 percent in 2026. Similarly, United Overseas Bank (UOB) revised its 2025 projection to 7.7 percent, highlighting ongoing strength in manufacturing and export activity as major contributors.

Despite global headwinds and recent natural disasters, Vietnam maintained solid, broad-based momentum through the third quarter of 2025.

All three major economic sectors posted positive gains, supporting Vietnam’s strong performance both in the third quarter and across the first nine months of the year.

Manufacturing and processing continued to lead the way, with industrial output rising 10 percent in Q3 and about 9.9 percent over the nine-month period, staying firmly on track with growth targets.

Sectoral composition

Vietnam drew US$31.52 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) during the first ten months of 2025, a 15.6 percent increase compared to the same period last year. FDI disbursements totaled US$21.3 billion, rising 8.8 percent year-on-year.

Existing foreign investors poured an additional US$12.11 billion into 1,206 ongoing projects, representing a 45 percent jump in supplementary capital. When combining new and expanded investments, manufacturing and processing absorbed US$16.37 billion—equivalent to 62.5 percent of all FDI—while real estate drew US$5.32 billion (20.3 percent).

Capital contributions and share acquisitions also recorded strong growth, climbing 45.1 percent to US$5.34 billion through 2,918 deals.

Strong momentum in new projects

Vietnam secured US$14.07 billion in newly registered investment across 3,321 projects in the first ten months of 2025. This reflects a 21.1 percent increase in the number of new projects, though the total pledged capital declined 7.6 percent year-on-year.

Manufacturing and processing remained the top destination for new investment, attracting US$5.61 billion or 55.9 percent of newly registered capital, followed by the real estate sector with US$2.75 billion (19.5 percent).

Trade trends

Vietnam recorded total trade turnover of US$762.44 billion from January to October 2025. The country posted a trade surplus of US$19.56 billion, compared with US$23.18 billion during the same period last year. The domestic economy ran a deficit of US$22.83 billion, whereas the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) sustained a strong surplus of US$42.39 billion.

Export

Vietnam’s export performance remained strong through 2025. In October alone, export turnover was estimated at US$42.05 billion—a slight 1.5 percent decline from the previous month but still 17.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Over the January–October period, total exports reached US$391 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.2 percent.

The domestic sector contributed US$94.17 billion, accounting for 24.1 percent of total export revenue, while the foreign-invested sector, including crude oil, dominated with US$296.83 billion, or 75.9 percent of total exports, marking a robust 22.5 percent rise.

Vietnam’s export structure also showed strong concentration in key product groups. Thirty-six export items recorded turnovers of more than US$1 billion, making up 94.1 percent of total exports. Among them, seven products each exceeded US$10 billion in export value, collectively accounting for 67.9 percent of the country’s export earnings.

Import

Vietnam’s import activity continued to expand through 2025. In October, imports were estimated at US$39.45 billion—one percent lower than the previous month but still 16.8 percent higher than the same period last year. From January to October, total imports rose 18.6 percent to US$371.44 billion. Of this amount, the domestic sector accounted for US$117 billion, reflecting a modest 2.8 percent increase, while the foreign-invested sector brought in US$254.44 billion, marking strong growth of 27.6 percent.

Import demand remained concentrated in major product groups. Vietnam purchased 47 product categories worth more than US$1 billion each, representing 93.9 percent of the country’s total import value. Four of these categories surpassed the US$10 billion mark and made up 52.7 percent of overall imports.

The import structure during the first ten months of 2025 was heavily weighted toward production-related goods. Capital goods dominated with US$348.23 billion, or 93.8 percent of total imports, driven by machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts, which accounted for 52.6 percent, and raw materials and fuels, which represented 41.2 percent. Meanwhile, consumer goods totaled US$23.21 billion, equivalent to 6.2 percent of import turnover.

China continued to be Vietnam’s largest source of imports, supplying US$150.9 billion worth of goods during the period.